Positive feedbacks are now accelerating global warming and threatening to send it out of
control. Stabilisation of the Climate in this complex system with long time delays now
requires a strategic intervention that turns off the heat before it is too late (i.e. reduces
"radiative forcing" to zero). This paper highlights the scale of the task ahead.
Address to the Club of Rome, October 2005
This paper outlines the current context of climate change and introduces the
work on Feedback Dynamics. The imperative of mobilising effective action changes the
role of science from pure information provision to applied change agency. Recognition of the
"State of Global Emergency" leads into an outline agenda of the scientific
response. This section, the origins of the "Apollo-Gaia Project", also raises
the critical question concerning an appropriate institutional locus. The address
concludes with a brief reflection on the psycho-dynamics of social change.
Feedback Dynamics and the Acceleration of Climate Change
A condensed update of current scientific analysis.
|Climate Sensitivity: A
Whole-Earth Dynamic Approach
This brief working paper moves away from the world of computer modelling to examine the Vostok
ice-core data for information that could throw new light on the issue of
climate sensitivity. If the sensitivity figures indicated in this study of
the Vostok data can be trusted, we face an urgent and radical re-evaluation of
the current strategic response to global warming.
|Response to Dr. Malte Meinshausen
whose work is currently being used as a foundation for the European response to climate change.
The task faced by the global community is now
the avoidance of catastrophic climate change, let alone dangerous climate
change. Meinshausen severs the
relationship between the goal of relating to the fundamental realities of the
global climate and what he describes as "policy-goals" - determined by
political, economic and other vested interests - without recourse to the
fundamental science. Even within the
terms of reference of the attempt to achieve "policy-goals" Meinshausen's
approach is fatally flawed. The
realistic problems we face in the mitigation of dangerous and catastrophic
climate change are far too important to allow this kind of work to be used as a
basis for policy formulation and strategic action, whether at national,
European, G8 or global levels.